The dollar will rebound against most currencies over the coming months, with the growing threat of recession in the U.S. and elsewhere keeping it firm in 2023 through safe-haven flows, according to market strategists polled by Reuters.
Most major central banks, including the Fed, are expected to end their tightening campaigns in early 2023. An overwhelming 80% majority, or 42 of 51 respondents, said there was not much scope for dollar upside based on monetary policy.
Despite the dollar’s recent pullback, major currencies are not expected to recoup their 2022 losses against the USD until at least late 2023, the survey showed.
The euro, up 10% against the dollar since its record low in September but still down nearly 8% this year, was expected to lose around 3% by end-February to trade at $1.02. It was expected to climb higher to trade around $1.07 in a year.
The Japanese yen, down nearly 20% for the year and currently trading around 136.50 per dollar, was expected to change hands around 139.17, 136.17 and 132.67 per dollar over the next three, six and 12 months respectively.
Sterling, up over 17% from its record low of $1.0382 in September amid political turmoil, was forecast to lose nearly 5% to trade around 1.16/$ in three months.
The poll also showed most emerging market currencies would lose over the coming six months despite the Chinese authorities relaxing some of their zero-COVID rules that fuelled expectations of a rebound in economic activity.
The Chinese yuan, which has gained around 5% since it reached its record low in November to trade below 7 per dollar, was expected to remain above that level over the coming six months.