OPEC retains world oil demand growth for 2023

The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3%, given better-than-anticipated 2H22 economic performance in various key economies.

The 2023 global economic growth forecast remained unchanged at 2.5%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is revised up to 2% for 2022 and 1% for 2023.

Similarly, the Euro-zone economic growth forecast is revised up to 3.2% for 2022 and 0.4% for 2023.

Japan’s economic growth forecast is revised down to 1.2% for 2022, but remained at 1% for 2023. China’s economic growth forecasts remained unchanged at 3.1% for 2022 and 4.8% for 2023. India’s economic growth forecast is revised up to 6.8% for 2022 but remained at 5.6% for 2023.

Brazil’s economic growth forecast is revised up to 2.8% for 2022, but remained unchanged at 1% for 2023. The 2022 economic growth forecast for Russia is revised up to a contraction of 4%, followed by a small contraction of 0.5% in 2023.

Although growth momentum is expected to carry over into 2023, the world economy will continue navigating through many challenges, amid high inflation, monetary tightening by major central banks, and high sovereign debt levels in many regions. Moreover, geopolitical and COVID-19 related risks and uncertainties may add to the downside risk in a few selected economies.

World Oil Demand

The world oil demand forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 2.5 mb/d. Oil demand is adjusted downward in the 3Q22, amid data showing a demand decline in the OECD and China, but non-OECD countries outside of China are revised higher.

Similarly, world oil demand growth for 2023 is also unchanged at 2.2 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.3 mb/d and non-OECD at 1.9 mb/d. This forecast remains surrounded by uncertainties including global economic developments, shifts in COVID-19 containment policies, and geopolitical tensions.

World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC liquids supply is estimated to expand by 1.9 mb/d in 2022, unchanged from last month’s assessment. Upward adjustments to liquids production in Russia and OECD Americas were largely offset by downward revisions to OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific.

The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are the US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while production is expected to see the largest declines in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids production growth remains unchanged from last month’s assessment at 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while declines are forecast in Russia and Mexico.

Nonetheless, large uncertainties remain over the impact of geopolitical developments, as well as expectations for US shale output in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are set to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in December increased by 91 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.97 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

Source: OPEC