Gold has inched up after a recent setback, with spot gold rising by 0.37% to $1,770.47 an ounce as of 10:46 am (UAE time) on Thursday, but it is unlikely to breach the $1800 level soon, as investors’ risk appetite have returned on strong economic data and earnings.
The US Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening is seen as one of the factors that could support the precious metal, which declined significantly during the second quarter of 2022.
Since March, the yellow metal has fallen by 11% on the back of a stronger dollar and rising US real Treasury yields.
“Having fallen sharply in Q2, we think that the gold price is now close to a cyclical trough… The price should revive a little in 2023 as markets factor in the prospect of US monetary tightening,” said Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics.
“We always expected the price of gold to fall back this year primarily owing to our forecasts of rising US yields and a strong dollar, which we thought would offset the positive impact on the price of safe-haven demand related to the war in Ukraine and rising inflation,” Bain said in a note.
Bain said gold could decline to $1,650 an ounce by the end of the year, before prices start to go up again in 2023.
According to Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, risk appetite has returned after strong US economic data and earnings.
“The primary driver for gold will be Wall Street’s assessment of how many more massive rate hikes that Fed has left until they enter a period of keeping policy steady,” Moya said in a note.
“It looks like the chances of a 75 basis-point rate increase at the September FOMC meetings are very much on the table and that might keep the dollar supported, which should make it hard for gold to rally above the $1800 level for now.”